Most project delays are decided in the first month
Why the early schedule matters more than any recovery plan, and three checks that catch problems while they are cheap.
When a large project finishes late, the cause is rarely a single dramatic event. Looking back across our engagements, the delay was usually baked in during the first month, when the schedule was drafted, accepted and rarely questioned again.
The optimistic baseline
A baseline is a promise. If it assumes that approvals arrive in two weeks, that every contractor mobilises on the same day and that long-lead equipment ships without a hiccup, it is not a plan. It is a wish with dates on it.
Three checks that catch problems early
- Trace the critical path to a person. Every activity on it needs a named owner who has confirmed the duration in writing.
- Price the float. If an activity has ten days of float, ask what it would cost to use them. Float that nobody can afford to use is not float.
- Test the first ninety days. Walk through the first quarter with the people who will do the work. Their objections are worth more than a software report.
What to do on day one
Set up weekly reporting before the work starts, and agree what a variance is. A report that only says "on track" until the week things break teaches everyone to stop reading it.
A late project is rarely a surprise to the people on site. It is a surprise to the people who were never told.
If you want a second opinion on a baseline before you sign it, that is exactly the kind of short study we do.